On Projecting to 2100: A Response to the Most Common Criticism
If short-term forecasts fail, why project eighty years out? Because long horizons focus attention on slow-moving forces such as demography […]
Uncategorized
The Demographic Trap: Why Niger’s Population Growth Erased Its Economic Gains
Niger grows in aggregate terms for decades yet ends the century with little per capita progress. This case study shows
The AI Question: How Artificial General Intelligence Reshapes the Growth Projection
Without productivity gains from advanced AI, many wealthy economies would stall. With them, growth stabilizes above demographic drag. This post
Japan’s Long Decline From World Second in 1968 to Sixth in 2100
Japan’s trajectory from postwar powerhouse to demographic constraint did not happen overnight. This post traces the turning points and explains
The West at 23.7 Percent: What the GDP Share Figures Actually Mean
A 23.7 percent share of global GDP does not mean collapse. It means the relative weight has shifted. This post
Why Nigeria’s 2100 GDP Figure Surprises Almost Everyone And Why It Should Not
Nigeria’s projected 60.5 trillion dollar economy in 2100 looks implausible at first glance. It is not. When you combine a
The AI Question: How Artificial General Intelligence Reshapes the Growth Projection
Without productivity gains from advanced AI, many wealthy economies would stall. With them, growth stabilizes above demographic drag. This post
The Demographic Trap: Why Niger’s Population Growth Erased Its Economic Gains
Niger grows in aggregate terms for decades yet ends the century with little per capita progress. This case study shows
On Projecting to 2100: A Response to the Most Common Criticism
If short-term forecasts fail, why project eighty years out? Because long horizons focus attention on slow-moving forces such as demography